Bogus Data
How Bad is the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?
photo credit: prayitno According to a new study by Asian Development Bank Institute, some of the U.S. trade deficit with China may be a statistical illusion (pdf). More specifically, they delve into how the iphone, invented in the U.S., actually makes our trade deficit with China worse. In a nutshell, China is only an assembler [...]
Why the Globe Will (Is) Cool(ing), or Will Appear To
Joe Bastardi explains the cyclical nature of global warming/cooling in this video (link opens video). What I find fascinating is how global forecasters are splicing data from the pre- and post-satellite era (1979). Anyone who works with data knows that splicing data created from two different methodologies is a very perilous exercise. In this case, [...]
Will America’s Private Sector Continue to Shrink? A Look at Government Compensation
In my previous blog looking at America’s Private Sector for October, 2010, I stated that I thought over the long-term the private sector share of personal income would continue to fall. This post will begin to explore why I think that is the case. Be warned that this journey involves delving into the intricacies of [...]
Ice, Ice Baby . . .
The more data that I explore the more I’ve come to realize that truly objective data is a rarity. There are omissions, unquantifiable variables and simple biases that all play a role. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of a particular data series is vitally important to good analysis. I’ve seen many a researcher come to [...]
Jobs . . . Now You See Them, Now You Don’t
Not being involved in the financial markets, I don’t usually pay much mind to new monthly jobs data. I know monthly numbers are extremely noisy and will be significantly revised in the future. However, lots of people do and, consequently, it influences the psychology of the markets. So one would think that such a closely [...]
Should Census Funding be Cut?
Jonathan Parker over at Everything Finance brings up a good point . . . should the U.S. Census Bureau be the target of budget cuts? Here is what he has to say: With the house returning to Republican hands, economists are worried about the quality of economic data suffering due to cost cutting. There is [...]
Per Capita versus Per Household Personal Income
For state-to-state comparisons, per capita personal income is the standard-bearer. Its simple to calculate and simple to understand; however, as I recently discovered it’s also simply misleading. Why? States where the average household is larger are penalized under a per capita ranking because children don’t earn anything. I discovered this problem when I noticed what [...]
Empirical Austrians
Empirical Austrians — is that an oxymoron? Mario Rizzo has an interesting post over at ThinkMarkets about the role Austrians may play in shaping the post-financial crisis world. However, he feels that Austrian economist have not done enough empirical work to convince others that Austrians have something to offer. In his words: Austrians failed to [...]
Debt Deflation
Here is an interesting analysis by Steve Keen at Debtwatch about America’s current economic predicament. The blog post “What Bernanke Doesn’t Understand about Deflation,” finds: Debt reduction is now the real story of the American economy, just as real story behind the apparent free lunch of the last two decades was rising debt. The secret [...]
About this Website
This website was born at a fishing trip on the shores of West Grand Lake at Leen’s Lodge in Grand Lake Stream, Maine. The fishing trip includes a lively group of financial professionals and economists who gather in friendship, to discuss the heated issues of the day and, of course, to fish . . . [...]
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