Bogus Data
How Bad is the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?
photo credit: prayitno According to a new study by Asian Development Bank Institute, some of the U.S. trade deficit with China may be a statistical illusion (pdf). More specifically, they delve into how the iphone, invented in the U.S., actually makes our trade deficit with China worse. In a nutshell, China is only an assembler [...]
Why the Globe Will (Is) Cool(ing), or Will Appear To
Joe Bastardi explains the cyclical nature of global warming/cooling in this video (link opens video). What I find fascinating is how global forecasters are splicing data from the pre- and post-satellite era (1979). Anyone who works with data knows that splicing data created from two different methodologies is a very perilous exercise. In this case, [...]
Will America’s Private Sector Continue to Shrink? A Look at Government Compensation
In my previous blog looking at America’s Private Sector for October, 2010, I stated that I thought over the long-term the private sector share of personal income would continue to fall. This post will begin to explore why I think that is the case. Be warned that this journey involves delving into the intricacies of [...]
Ice, Ice Baby . . .
The more data that I explore the more I’ve come to realize that truly objective data is a rarity. There are omissions, unquantifiable variables and simple biases that all play a role. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of a particular data series is vitally important to good analysis. I’ve seen many a researcher come to [...]
Jobs . . . Now You See Them, Now You Don’t
Not being involved in the financial markets, I don’t usually pay much mind to new monthly jobs data. I know monthly numbers are extremely noisy and will be significantly revised in the future. However, lots of people do and, consequently, it influences the psychology of the markets. So one would think that such a closely [...]
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