Today the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released their monthly personal income data for January 2011 (pdf).
The chart below shows the private sector share of personal income from January 1959 to January 2011. Since the private hit its inflection point in April 2010, the private sector had its largest gain of 0.5 percentage points between December 2010 and January 2011. The private sector has now grown in 9 of the past 10 months adding a total of 0.66 percentage points.
It will be interesting to see if the private sector can maintain this momentum in the face of the Egyptian riots and consequent rise in oil prices. As David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors, recently said in one of his email updates: “The risk of recession in the US and European economies is rising daily.”
Note: “Supplements to Wages and Salaries” (benefits) in the BEA data are not broken down into “private” sector” versus “government” components. I used the ratio of private wages and salaries to total wages and salaries in order to disaggregate supplements.