Ice, Ice Baby . . .

The more data that I explore the more I’ve come to realize that truly objective data is a rarity.  There are omissions, unquantifiable variables and simple biases that all play a role.  Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of a particular data series is vitally important to good analysis.  I’ve seen many a researcher come to bogus conclusions because they failed to understand that such-and-such was an artifact of the data and not of the phenomenon being studied.

So what does this have to do with ice?  In this week’s Monday Morning Sea Ice/Global Temp report (link leads to a video), Joe Bastardi wonders aloud if U.S. arctic/antarctic ice data is not tainted by ideological bias in support of the global warming hypothesis.  This is not a charge that anyone should make lightly, but Bastardi has clearly done his homework with a plethora of additional data in direct conflict with the U.S. data.  As a fellow data-geek, I can appreciate how the dots can slowly begin to connect themselves as one studies one ream of data after another.

This is why I follow one cardinal rule with data work–the researcher  must collect and analyze the data personally.  This may seem a tedious waste-of-time when so much free labor, i.e., interns, may be floating around, but these types of anomalies take time to ferment in the brain before you have that “A-Ha” moment.  I simply don’t understand how anyone can put their name on an analysis and not have done any of the data work . . . at best, you are leaving knowledge on the table and, at worst, opening yourself up to trouble.

Is Bastardi right?  Who really knows . . . since there is another cardinal rule of data work: if you mess-up (purposefully or not), no one will notice.  Or so you hope 🙂

Winter Forecast for 2010 and 2011

Accuweather.com last week released Joe Bastardi’s winter forecast for 2010 and 2011 (link leads to a video).  The modeler in me finds weather forecasting to be fascinating because in what other predictive science can one get such immediate feedback?  Right or wrong, you’ll soon find out.

I have also grown fond of Joe Bastardi’s work.  He is a global-warming sceptic, but he does so with solid empirical evidence–such as his “Monday Morning Sea Ice Report.”  In contrast, the other side rely on models to predict global-warming.

What does global-warming have to do with Wealth Alchemy?  Plenty, because many Wealth Alchemists would love to see schemes such as “cap-and-trade” become law.  Cap-and-trade would not only destroy wealth on a massive scale (by imposing obsolesce on older technology based on politics not economics), but would also impose a permanent handicap to future wealth creation.  It would, in essence, institutionalize rent-seeking on a vast scale as special-interests jockey for prime real-estate under the new rules.

At any rate, you can view Joe’s free U.S. videos here and his free European blog here.  All else you have to subscribe to . . . which is another reason to like Joe, his forecasts have to pass a market test.  The other side, not so much.

Update: Joe Bastardi’s latest Monday Morning Sea Ice Report can be found here (link leads to a video).