We all know that Uncle Sam is drowning in red ink–if you need a humorous reminder check out Remy’s “Raise the Debt Ceiling.” Well, it turns out that states are not in much better shape. According to a new study by Harvard Economist Jeffrey Miron, for the Mercatus Center, states will reach dangerous debt levels in 20 to 30 years. From the study “The Fiscal Health of the U.S. States” (pdf):
This paper examines the fiscal health of the 50 U.S. states and reaches five conclusions. First, state government finances are not on a stable path; if spending patterns continue to follow those of recent decades, the ratio of state debt to output will increase without bound. Second, the key driver of increasing state and local expenditures is heath-care costs, especially Medicaid and subsidies for health-insurance exchanges under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2009. Third, states have large implicit debts for unfunded pension liabilities, making their net debt positions substantially worse than official debt statistics indicate. Fourth, if spending trends continue and tax revenues remain near their historical levels relative to output, most states will reach dangerous ratios of debt to GDP within 20 to 30 years. Fifth, states differ in their degrees of fiscal imbalance, but the overriding fact is that all states face fiscal meltdown in the foreseeable future.
Check out this video to see when your state reaches the danger zone.
Hat tip to Matt Mitchell at Neighborhood Effects